Fuel Price in Nigeria Set to Rise as U.S.-Iran Conflict Hits Global Market

Nigeria is bracing for another round of petrol and diesel price hikes as the escalating military conflict between the United States and Iran continues to unsettle the global crude oil market.

Energy analysts warned on Monday that the hostilities in the Middle East are pushing “risk premiums” into international oil prices, a development that will directly impact pump prices in Nigeria despite the recent increase in local refining capacity.

Currently, petrol prices in major Nigerian cities range between N824 and N880 per litre. This follows a brief period of relief in February 2026, when the Dangote Petroleum Refinery reduced its ex-depot price to N774 per litre. However, experts say this gain is now at risk as crude oil prices approach the $90 per barrel mark.

The conflict has severely disrupted tanker movements around the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic maritime corridor that handles over 20 percent of the world’s oil supply.

Kelvin Emmanuel, Chief Executive Officer of Dairy Hills, noted that the Dangote refinery remains exposed to these shocks because it still relies heavily on imported crude.

“Dangote currently processes an average of 18 million barrels of crude oil monthly. Out of this, about 12 million barrels are imported,” Emmanuel explained. He added that if crude prices stay above $90, the refinery will have no choice but to revise the prices of PMS and diesel upward.

With the total removal of fuel subsidies, Nigeria no longer has a “buffer” to shield citizens from global price swings.

Dayo Ayoade, an energy law expert at the University of Lagos, emphasized that while the government might see an increase in national revenue from higher oil exports, the cost to the average Nigerian will be immediate.

“Without subsidies, any crude price increase will directly impact fuel prices at the pump. We must remain cautious,” Ayoade warned.

The Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria (IPMAN) stated that it is monitoring the situation closely.

Chinedu Ukadike, the National Publicity Secretary of IPMAN, said: “Anything that affects the international oil market will affect local supply and prices. We are watching the reactions of the refinery and the government.”

Other experts, including Olatide Jeremiah of Petroleumprice.ng, described the crisis as a wake-up call for the Federal Government to boost domestic crude production and curb oil theft to ensure local refineries are fed with Nigerian crude rather than expensive imports.