TUC Predicts N2,000 Petrol Price as Middle East Tensions Escalate

​The Nigerian economy is bracing for a potential energy crisis as the Trade Union Congress (TUC) warns that Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) could hit an unprecedented N2,000 per litre due to a toxic combination of global conflict and domestic currency weakness.

​Speaking at a high-level briefing in Abuja on Thursday, TUC President Festus Osifo painted a grim picture of the nation’s energy security. He attributed the looming price hike to the intensifying military tensions in the Middle East, specifically involving Iran and Israel. These hostilities have disrupted critical shipping lanes and sent global crude oil benchmarks higher, directly impacting the landing cost of refined products for a nation still heavily dependent on fuel imports.

​According to the labour leader, the “excruciating pain” currently felt by Nigerian workers is likely to worsen as the multiplier effect of energy inflation takes hold. Osifo noted that the rising cost of diesel has already crippled production margins for local manufacturers, who are now passing those costs directly to consumers. The predicted jump in petrol prices would further squeeze disposable income, potentially triggering a deeper recession in the retail and transport sectors.

​The TUC identified the sustained depreciation of the Naira as the secondary engine of this inflation. Because petrol is priced in dollars on the international market, every dip in the local currency’s value translates into a higher figure at the Nigerian pump, regardless of global supply levels.

​In a significant policy recommendation, the TUC has urged the Federal Government to rethink its approach to market intervention. Rather than returning to the discredited regime of subsidizing retail consumption, Osifo advocated for a “production-based subsidy.”

​Under this proposal, the government would utilize excess revenue—generated when global crude prices trade above the national budget benchmark—to provide discounted crude oil to local refineries. The TUC argues that by lowering the cost of the raw material for refiners, the government can effectively reduce the retail prices of petrol, diesel, and aviation fuel without the massive leakages and corruption historically associated with downstream subsidies.

​While the Federal Government has championed Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) as a cheaper, cleaner alternative to petrol, the TUC highlighted significant bottlenecks in its implementation. Osifo warned that the “Renewed Hope” CNG initiative would remain a pipe dream for most Nigerians unless there is a massive and rapid deployment of refueling stations across the federation. Currently, the lack of infrastructure is deterring transporters from converting their vehicles, leaving them trapped in the volatile petrol market.

​As the TUC prepares to submit these formal recommendations to the Presidency, the union also expressed grave concern over the national security situation. Osifo called on the administration to equip security agencies with modern technology to halt the ongoing killings in various parts of the country, linking the general state of insecurity to the nation’s fragile economic stability.